Tonight sees the beginning of the 2011/12 Heineken Cup campaign, and it’s one that is met with anticipation and a sense of the unknown. With the start of the Celtic League (still refusing to acknowledge the ridiculous rebrand of the league), Aviva Premiership and the Top 14 going ahead without the world cup stars, there is an element of ambiguity surrounding the form of the teams around Europe. The return of the internationals almost signals a second beginning for the regions, clubs and provinces of Europe, and where better to kick it off than the pinnacle club tournament in world rugby?
As is the level of competition, every year produces a group of death. Last year saw the Ospreys battle it out with Munster, Toulon and London Irish for European supremacy. This year it’s the turn of their neighbours from down the M4 to take the trip to Thomond Park as well as Franklyn’s Gardens and Stade Pierre-Antoine. Pool 1 is a hideous concoction of Irish muscle in Munster, English superstars in Northampton, French juggernauts Castres Olympique and the raw Welsh talent of the Scarlets. Two or three years ago, anyone looking at this group would see Nigel Davies’ team as the whipping boys, not now. Since their heroics in 2006/07 when they beat the giants Toulouse 34-41 on French soil, they’ve struggled in the Heineken cup. However, the big returning names from the world cup coupled with the return of their captain Matthew Rees means they are fully equipped to deal with the trials and tribulations that is the pool of death. If everyone is fit, the potential is staggering, especially in the backline: 9.Tavis Knoyle 10.Stephen Jones 11.Morgan Stoddard 12.Scott Williams 13.Jonathan Davies 14.George North 15.Rhys Priestland. Unfortunately, these groups are usually so competitive that only one team progresses through the knockout stage. It’s very difficult to look past Munster given their history in the tournament, but absolutely anything can happen in this group. Northampton’s improved squad will take some beating at home and travelling to Castres won’t be easy. This group will be the tightest in terms of points, but home form is absolutely crucial and given that importance, Thomond Park will produce an Irish victor, just.
Pool 2 is intriguing in a different way. The teams are all considered 2nd tier European sides apart from maybe the Scottish outfit, which finds itself flirting with Connacht in the 3rd tier. However, Edinburgh along with the Cardiff Blues, Racing Metro and London Irish will all fancy their chances of winning the group given the lack of a European colossus in their ranks. Edinburgh and the Blues find themselves 10th and 5th in the Celtic League respectively whilst Irish are flying high in the Aviva in 3rd spot leaving Metro a respectable 6th in the Top 14. This group will again be a tight one, but with the feel-good factor that still lingers in the Welsh capital following the World Cup, if the Blues can take something away from France this evening, expect them to qualify as winners.
The holders Leinster who will be without the talismanic figure of Brian O’Driscoll for the entire qualifying campaign as he undergoes surgery on a shoulder problem that’s been dogging him for the previous couple of campaigns. It’s a great shame that he won’t feature during the group stage, but there’s a fair chance we’ll see the man they call BOD in the latter stages of the competition given their relatively uncomplicated qualifying schedule. Montpellier lie one off the bottom of the Top 14, Bath continue their unremarkable last few seasons at 7th in the Aviva and although Glasgow are sitting pretty at 4th in the Celtic League, none of these teams will trouble the Irish giants and expect them to qualify easily for the last 8.
There is always a team that’s seemingly there to make up the numbers, this year it’s the turn of Aironi. The group is the most likely to produce a qualifier through the backdoor as best runner-up, simply because Aironi are very likely to leak 4 tries home and away to each team. Whoever can remain unbeaten at home and pick another victory up on the road will qualify automatically; the other two teams will battle it out for the next best place. With Leicester’s uncharacteristically shaky start to their premiership campaign and Clermont Auvergne placed on top of the pile in the French Top 14 it’s a difficult one to call. Add Ulster’s outspoken ambition to the mix and you have a cracker of a group. Clermont have recruited ambitiously adding Lee Byrne, Benoit Cabello and Sitevini Sivivatu to their already star-studded squad and their dominance is likely to carry them through as group winners relatively comfortably. Given the Midlands outfit wretched start to their domestic campaign, Richard Cockerill will demand a European backlash. Leicester’s Heineken Cup pedigree speaks for itself and it’s this experience that will see the wounded Tigers scrape through as runners-up.
Pool 5 will be decided at the Stadio Monigo. Those unfamiliar with the Celtic League newcomers in Benetton Treviso are likely to think that they will be the whipping boys of the group that includes Premiership Champions Saracens, Basque country’s finest Biarritz and the now non-Galacticos Ospreys. In the same way that Connacht is a ‘tough place to go’, any side in this group that has aspirations of European success has to come away with a bonus point win. Anything less will simply mean, they won’t qualify as group winners. It’s a step into the unknown for Biarritz and Saracens, but the Ospreys are all too familiar with struggling to victory against Treviso. Although the Welsh side have tried to rid their Galacticos label by banning fake tan and coloured boots, in truth they didn’t have much option. The players that made them the elite in Welsh rugby have left them, tired of failure and constant underachieving. Lee Byrne, Mike Phillips, Marty Holah, Jerry Collins and James Hook to name but a few are plying their trade elsewhere. If they couldn’t make an impact with some of world rugby’s biggest names, how are they expected to do it without them? Saracens have invested smartly over the summer bringing in some real quality in Charlie Hodgson and John Smit and their 2nd place position in the Aviva proves that there are great things happening at Vicarage Road, with the egg shaped ball anyway. This will push them through to the last 8 as group winners. Biarritz have always shone in Europe, but their league form suggests that this year might be a step too far. Lying at the very bottom of the league in France, it’s strange to say that it’s going to be a toss-up for the runners up spot between them and the Ospreys, who are top of the Celtic League, but it’s exactly what it is. In their comfort zone of the Celtic League, the Ospreys are a very good club side, constantly in and around the Top 4 of the league, but their European woes are evident for all to see. With the departure of so many big names, it’s difficult to see their shortcomings changing. Biarritz, like Leicester, will be keen to right their domestic wrongs. For this reason, the Basque outfit will just hold on to the runners up spot, but they’ll be pushed all the way by the Neath-Swansea coalition. The two teams meet on at the Liberty Stadium on Saturday and will shape the group; it’ll be a ripsnorter.
The final group sees Connacht, Gloucester and league-leaders Harlequins take on the irrepressible Toulouse. It’s simple, Toulouse will win this group, they are a cut above the rest and their squad oozes quality. No one will go to France and pick up anything more than a losing bonus point and they’ll go to the Sportsground to pick up a routine win as well as a win at Kingsholm. If the Quins can remain unbeaten at The Stoop, and pick up a bonus point win at Connacht, their chances of qualifying will hinge on the game at Kingsholm, which takes place in the second round of matches. It’s a huge game for a Quins side that desperately want to return to the top of the English heap.
This year, like last year, gives all the teams in the competition a reprieve. Once the final 8 has been decided for the main event, the next best three teams will fall into the Amlin Challenge Cup. This is a route that the Cardiff Blues took to win the competition last year and it’s a move the ERC can be proud of. It’s given the tournament a real fillip, and last year proved that having the calibre of Toulon, Munster and the Cardiff Blues dropping down produced greater spectacles and quality of rugby.
If everything goes as predicted, the draw for the final 8 will look like this:
Ø Munster (Q)
Ø Cardiff Blues (Q)
Ø Leinster Rugby (Q)
Ø Clermont Auvergne (Q)
Ø Saracens (Q)
Ø Toulouse (Q)
Ø Leicester Tigers (q)
Ø Harlequins (q)
This means three places being up for grabs for the Amlin Challenge Cup. If the Scarlets can gain parity against their group opposition, their backline can match anyone in the competition. Leinster’s expected dominance in pool 3 opens the door to one of the other three teams, Glasgow simply aren’t good enough, Montpellier are indifferent while Bath are good enough to push their way through with world cup hero Stephen Donald joining their ranks. This could be the catalyst that could catapult the West Country outfit out of the lull that’s been humming around The Rec for the past few years. If this is to be the case then the teams joining the likes of the London Wasps and Stade Francais will be:
Ø Llanelli Scarlets
Ø Bath Rugby
Ø Biarritz Olympique
Predictions are of course predictable, and one thing that the Heineken Cup is not is predictable. That’s what makes the tournament not only great, but the best domestic competition in the world.
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